Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 158.332964 191.130697 231.558167 285.958572 358.682036 4.547181e+02 5.949941e+02
2025-03-16 115.403611 151.123798 200.486818 276.416566 395.683403 5.865171e+02 9.411567e+02
2025-03-23 100.538021 140.146770 200.057354 303.129288 490.225802 8.513605e+02 1.725637e+03
2025-03-30 86.351998 125.651978 188.989169 307.304182 547.669056 1.090889e+03 2.779549e+03
2025-04-06 77.398818 116.856449 184.076383 319.377090 625.366686 1.437851e+03 4.808182e+03
2025-04-13 68.194756 105.709219 172.241396 313.835726 661.960166 1.718883e+03 7.473741e+03
2025-04-20 64.851563 103.841899 176.552438 342.793104 800.010027 2.484076e+03 1.702757e+04
2025-04-27 61.449130 101.187948 178.626288 367.521759 945.321741 3.544028e+03 4.448135e+04
2025-05-04 57.963063 97.758115 178.314651 386.473806 1089.445010 4.963176e+03 1.444677e+05
2025-05-11 54.429042 93.671199 175.733776 398.757756 1223.132471 6.785905e+03 7.062782e+05
2025-05-18 50.781879 88.837546 170.565086 402.245280 1328.414000 8.896906e+03 8.997300e+06
2025-05-25 46.973410 83.192843 162.560607 394.980166 1383.782185 1.090741e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 43.262314 77.500947 153.954542 384.841145 1428.506701 1.336812e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 39.701141 71.749165 144.360894 368.995254 1434.973151 1.557235e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 39.142885 72.353327 150.488476 408.090410 1805.116068 3.119715e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 37.150867 69.560956 147.488362 414.233589 1985.404209 4.832192e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 35.795225 68.033641 147.548387 432.206794 2290.260642 9.244870e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 33.638113 64.442356 141.457996 423.939918 2377.036606 1.341679e+05 NaN
2025-07-13 33.321944 65.086251 147.205523 467.347091 3042.708958 5.499492e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 32.740384 65.028676 150.974730 504.827603 3793.910808 4.658396e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 31.916323 64.286431 152.603645 533.800987 4580.165681 1.464691e+09 NaN
2025-08-03 30.890010 62.932341 152.142183 552.692640 5332.755521 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 29.648661 60.914613 149.283559 558.072012 5909.714016 NaN NaN